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Mannie Netherly is quite happy these days, even without football.

He is a father to a five-month-old male child, has a solid job as a FedEx commitment commuter and is studying to be an electrician at a Houston-area junior college. Only that doesn't hateful he has no regrets about a football career that went south in a hurry.

A iv-star signee with LSU in 2016, Netherly transitioned from receiver to cornerback and worked his way into the secondary rotation by the stop of his 2d year in Baton Rouge, even recording a tackle in the Tigers' rousing Fiesta Bowl win over UCF.

In March 2019, two months afterwards that game, Netherly entered the NCAA transfer portal.

He never played a down of football game again.

"You're taking a big take a chance by putting your name in the portal," says Netherly. "The grass is non always greener on the other side."

Netherly is a cautionary tale of what awaits some players in the transfer portal: nothing. Because of the NCAA'due south strict scholarship limitations and the latest portal surge, there are more than teamless players than in that location are teams for them.

Hundreds of college football players observe themselves stuck in portal purgatory without desirable landing spots. And there seems to be no end in sight for the latest stream of portal hoppers given sweeping new NCAA dominion modernizations. The onetime transfer exception, which eliminates the one-yr sit-out penalty for FBS transfers, is scheduled to pass later this spring, and athlete endorsement opportunities, often referred to as proper name, image and likeness, are expected to arrive by August.

RECRUITING: Summit 25 Classes as National Signing Day Approaches

While available players are on the rise, bachelor spots are plummeting. The NCAA'due south annual 25-man signing limit is reducing opportunities, and the organization'southward decision to grant an extra yr to athletes in light of COVID-19, while sensible, is creating a "super freshman" class that volition further minimize roster spots.

In fact, as the 2021 National Signing Day approaches on Midweek, college football recruiting stands, like the sport itself, at a seminal moment. This may be the final course of signees before a pour of legislative changes forever alters recruiting.

Fewer high school players are expected to sign as coaches leave spots for a booming transfer market place. Evaluations could grow increasingly difficult with coaches traveling far less as part of a COVID-19-inspired overhaul to the recruiting calendar. And more and more football players could see their careers die in the portal, similar Netherly'southward.

"Change is inevitable in higher football. That's what makes things meliorate," says Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck. "But nosotros take to ask ourselves what we're doing to make things better. We're heading downwardly a path where there are a lot of rules in place for reasons and yous outset lifting them and we're opening a whole new can."

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Mannie Netherly transitioned from receiver to cornerback before leaving LSU.

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Since Aug. one, nearly 1,500 players have entered the transfer portal, according to a 247Sports database that tracks portal motility. That's but 200 players shy of the total number who entered the portal all of last bike, from Aug. i, 2019 to July 31, 2020.

However, portal numbers can be skewed. Equally many as one-third of those players are walk-ons, according to an SI examination of the portal. As of terminal week, just 964 of the 1,500 FBS players in the portal garnered a recruiting ranking from 247Sports (a vast majority of the other 500 are walk-ons).

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Of the 964, most 60% (558) are uncommitted and yet searching for a landing spot. The 964 players are separate between those transferring from the Power 5 (557 players) and those transferring from the Group of Five (407 players). In a striking statistic, of the 299 Power five players who have committed to a new school, 60% took a step downwards in level, their next destination a Group of 5 or FCS school. Just ane-3rd of Grouping of Five transfers stepped upwardly to the Power 5.

In that location'south likewise a collection of portal entrants, the number of which is unknown, who have had to swallow a very difficult medicine: They've become walk-ons. Some, like Netherly, may soon exist out of football completely.

"Correct at present, there are a lot of kids in the portal that are non going to find scholarships," Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby says. "At that place may exist twice equally many people in the portal as in that location are places to transfer. At that place will be some who won't exist able to go to college if they don't go a scholarship."

The contempo portal influx tin can be traced to the impending i-time transfer exception. Expecting the transfer legislation to laissez passer in January, leagues of players rushed into the transfer portal to get a head start on a market expected to boom in the spring and summer.

Though the NCAA delayed its vote on the transfer legislation, the proposal is expected to be re-examined and adopted "no later than April," says Shane Lyons, the West Virginia athletic managing director who sits on ii powerful NCAA rule-making committees, the Sectionalisation I Council and Football Oversight.

Officials from every walk of college sports believe players are entering the transfer portal under the impression that the sometime exception is an easy mode to discover immediate playing fourth dimension or to elevate their situation in some manner. Oftentimes, that's not happening.

They're receiving "bad communication," says one Group of 5 assistant coach.

"They retrieve they enter the portal and are automatically going to have a scholarship," Fleck says. "The portal isn't something where y'all teleport magically somewhere else."

The transfer surge is expected to continue well into adjacent year'due south cycle, non simply because of the quondam transfer exception simply every bit a result of a COVID-xix-inspired dominion granting each athlete an extra year of eligibility. While the seniors who render for next flavor do not count against a team's 85 scholarship limit, players from all future classes practise.

For case, players who were juniors in the fall of 2020 and would normally have graduated past the 2022 season will now have the option to render as fifth- or even 6th-year seniors. They'd count against the 85. Meanwhile, some freshman classes in 2021 will exist behemothic: 25 incoming freshmen volition be coupled with roughly 25 "COVID-shirted" freshmen (true sophomores who were freshmen during 2020) for a 50-person rookie class. That leaves 35 scholarship spots for three classes.

While teams tin have 85 players on scholarship each twelvemonth, they tin sign only 25 new players a year. The 100 signees over 4 years leaves a xv-actor wiggle room for natural compunction. New transfer legislation and the impending COVID-shirter wave is causing unnatural attrition.

In the 2022 and 2023 recruiting cycles, coaches have ane of 2 choices: retain their scholarship players and add fewer signees, or push button out scholarship players and sign a normal class.

"The biggest claiming are these juniors who are going to exist seniors [in 2022]," says Littoral Carolina double-decker Jamey Chadwell. "Those are going to be hard discussions."

Players who are pushed out have one option: the transfer portal. Ane Sunday Belt banana coach expects as many as 500 to 1,000 more players to enter the portal by June, a ghastly large number that will nearly certainly end some careers.

In light of the former transfer exception and COVID-shirters, high-ranking leaders in the sport believe the NCAA must loosen the almanac 25-role player limit on new signees, referred to in legislative terms as "initial counters." Several conference commissioners take publicly supported the move, including Bowlsby and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, who told SI last month "It has to modify."

"Next yr, in theory, nosotros have 50 freshmen on the roster and 85 spots," says Troy Dannen, Tulane'due south athletic director and a member of the Football Oversight Committee. "There is going to exist a huge issue in 2022–23 and beyond if the 25 cap doesn't change."

Three proposals exist to adjust the 25-signee limit, says Lyons, simply it's unlikely that one will exist adopted for this cycle. I proposal allows coaches to supplant each role player lost to the NFL, the transfer portal or for medical reasons, granting an unlimited number of signee spots in a ane-for-one arroyo. Another like proposal caps the number of replaceable signees at 10. A third proposal turns the one-year signee limit into a two-year limit, granting coaches 50 signees to be used over a 2-year stretch.

Lyons and others are concerned that replacing departures with additional signee spots will "repeat history." The 25-man limit was implemented to disincentivize the trend of coaches cutting or pushing out scholarship players in an effort to oversign high school players or transfers.

Jon Steinbrecher, commissioner of the MAC, says the 25-human being limit needs a "hard look" because of the concern, from a host of higher athletic administrators and coaches, that teams will not consistently fill all 85 of their scholarship spots given the transfer movement. A transfer is leaving a scholarship spot empty at his former school and is using one of the precious 25 signee spots at his new school.

"It's going to be difficult for teams to have 85 when the season starts," says Pat Chun, Washington Land'due south athletic director, who sits on the D-I Council.

Every bit it pertains to the 25-signee limit, Bowlsby has a somewhat revolutionary thought that is probably a longshot. To inject more parity in college football game, the Big 12 commissioner believes the almanac signee limit could vary from school to school based on that plan's past success and failures.

"If you win the Super Basin, you have a depression draft option. So possibly in the higher surround you have fewer than 25 to distribute the talent, so the rich aren't rich all the fourth dimension and the poor take a chance to build their programs up," he says. "It's time to think differently about how the enterprise is managed."

There are other longshot ideas for scholarship relief. For example, the SEC has proposed that all athletes who are COVID-shirted should non be counted toward the 85. That could outcome in more than 100 players on scholarship on a given team for multiple years.

Bowlsby calls the move "not likely," and nigh other college administrators feel like the proposal has little momentum because of the finances alone. Sure, SEC teams and others in the Power 5 tin beget to fund such a large number of scholarships, simply what virtually the little guys?

"Let'southward not reduce future opportunities for people coming into the arrangement because we had to manage through a pandemic," Sankey says. "It'due south going to cost a trivial money only we ought to be spending that money on student-athlete scholarships."

ACC athletic directors have recently discussed the SEC's proposal, examining a way to observe relief for what could be a real mess in 2022, says Clemson athletic director Dan Radakovich.

"When players move up through that COVID-19 pipeline, how are they going to be counted?" he asks. "There is more to be discussed on that."

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About 600 players sit in portal purgatory, hoping that coaches agree open plenty signee slots to add them over the jump and summertime. For that to happen, the 130 FBS programs would have to each leave open roughly 5 of their 25 spots after this week'south signing period. That is unlikely given the number already signed in December's early signing period.

For example, eighteen of the superlative 26 programs in 247Sports's squad recruiting rankings have signed at least 21 players inbound this week.

Merely coaches do program to adjust their recruiting approach given the transfer surge. Todd Berry, the executive director of the American Football Coaches Clan, says he'due south heard from coaches who are planning in the future to dedicate one-half of their 25-player signee spots for transfers.

That could adversely impact high school and inferior higher recruiting.

"I call back JUCO kids are actually going to go impacted," Chadwell says. "Those are the guys yous try to get firsthand help from. If you need an firsthand impact, at present y'all're portal hunting."

Portal hunting comes at a cost. Not only does a transfer punish his own school by leaving an empty scholarship spot, but he's using a signee spot at his new school despite, many times, not having a full 4 years of eligibility remaining.

For coaches, the decision is quite simple: Have an unproven player to develop over four or v years or grab an older role player who may need less development but might merely take one or 2 years of eligibility.

"When yous start looking at where we're headed with the transfer portal, there are two ways of looking at it," Fleck says. "The kickoff signing 24-hour interval is like the draft. The 2nd role is free agency and that's the transfer portal. You lot'll see less and less people signing 25 high school kids. I can run into united states being lxxx% high school kids, because that's what makes our program our program. We do want players who can play multiple years."

And then there are the coaches confronting transfers all together, fearing character, work ethic or talent concerns.

"I hate the portal," says 1 Group of Five assistant. "Some people say one homo's trash is some other human'due south treasure. I think it's B.S. Those guys are leaving for a reason."

Not everyone feels that way. In fact, Berry is concerned that college football will evolve into a tizzy of free-amanuensis movement—the time-honored history of developing high school players eschewed for the piece of cake road of landing transfers.

"Why would you accept a loftier schoolhouse thespian rather than a proven college histrion?" Berry asks.

Chadwell believes more higher coaches have left for the NFL this offseason as a mode to escape the coming tidal wave of change (one-fourth dimension transfer, NIL, etc.) nearly to crash upon the college game. Coaches are not necessarily building programs anymore, Chadwell says, as much as they're building year-to-year teams like the NFL.

Barry says Group of 5 coaches are worried about Power five teams poaching their best players, and Power v teams are fearing that their depth will suffer as talented backups leave for starting roles elsewhere. Recruiting a histrion from a higher team before he enters the portal is against NCAA rules, but it's still rampant now. With transfers eligible immediately and NIL upon the sport, officials expect even more illegal recruitment.

"Say information technology like it is," says ane SEC banana. "Yous're going to be recruiting but recruiting your ain team to stay."

Recruiting change isn't relegated to the transfer aspect.

The recruiting calendar itself is receiving somewhat of an overhaul, as officials take what they are calling a "holistic" view. They've learned lessons from the yearlong dead catamenia during COVID-19. Possibly coaches don't need to visit prospects so much and spend weeks at a time on the road. Virtual recruiting through Zoom was successful enough at some places that a few coaches claim they know their current signing form meliorate than whatever they've ever signed.

In short, expect more expressionless periods in future recruiting calendars.

"We just can't turn the calendar back and say, 'We're going back to what we were doing in the past,' " Radakovich says.

For now, there is the task of lifting a dead catamenia that has stretched from mid-March 2020 and is scheduled to cease in mid-Apr. Officials are deciding on three options, Lyons says: (1) keeping the expressionless flow through July, (2) instituting a Tranquility Period, where players can visit campus and coaches can hold on-campus camps, or (3) completely opening recruiting with a Contact Catamenia.

"This is all dependent on the virus," Lyons says.

In the concurrently, teams proceed portal hunting and players continue portal waiting. As of last week, Arizona, Western Kentucky and Utah State led the nation having each added commitments from 11 players in the portal. WKU dove into the portal to supercede players who take left for, yeah, the portal. The Hilltoppers currently take a nation-leading 21 players in information technology.

The average Power five plan has 8.5 scholarship players in the portal while the boilerplate Group of Five team has 6.3. Those numbers will only rise, not only because of COVID-shirters or the transfer exception dominion change. There's another reason to look more transfers, experts say. Some members of the latest signing class, because of the pandemic, never took a visit to the campuses of the school with which they signed.

"Some of these kids are going to show upwards and realize they don't like it," says 1 SEC assistant jitney.

And where do they go? Into the portal, of grade.

Netherly knows all about that. He spent months in the portal, and while he fielded a pocket-size handful of offers, most of them were for him to play defensive back. He wanted to play receiver. V months later on he officially withdrew from LSU, the Tigers won the national title. Netherly spent that 2019 autumn at a Texas junior college while his one-time teammates got title rings.

He's dorsum in Houston now, raising his child, working toward that degree and possessing a lingering regret that he's using to advise young portal hoppers today.

"Looking back, I probably wish I would take stayed at LSU, not just for football but to get my degree," he says. "A lot of kids, I know they know where they are going before they put their name in the portal, merely if non, you lot're taking a big risk. You're gambling on yourself. I know there aren't 1,500 scholarships out at that place."

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Source: https://www.si.com/college/2021/02/02/college-football-recruiting-transfer-portal-covid

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